Will the raw materials market rebound again before the Spring Festival?
Crude oil futures in New York closed up $48 a barrel, or $1.67 a barrel, on January 13, as a cold snap hit the northeastern United States as stockpiles of U.S. crude oil declined. London's Brent crude also broke through $45 a barrel, the highest since December. Shell recently declared force majeure, although the head of the company has repeatedly guaranteed the supply of MEG, but polyester raw material traders found an excuse for speculation, coupled with strong support from crude oil, polyester raw material market on January 14 to stop the decline. The raw material market is generally stable, MEG has a slight recovery of 50-100 yuan / ton, and the general export price of imported bulk MEG in Zhejiang is 9950 yuan / ton. PTA market has not changed, domestic PTA general cash withdrawal quotation stay at 8400-8500 yuan / ton, imported PTA general cash withdrawal transaction price or 8300-8400 yuan / ton. The PX market is still waiting for the February contract price. In addition, as a result of new capacity and part of the plant to resume production, the world in recent days increased the annual production capacity of about 1.5 million tons. Keeping up with the upstream raw material market, the polyester chip market remained stable on January 17, although the semi-smooth filament slice Market generally has a tentative slight drop in cash self-drawn transaction price (January 16 for 10,800-10,900 yuan / ton, January 17 for 10,800-10,850 yuan / ton), but it has no impact on the market, the market is still very stable. Domestic semi-smooth filament slices in Shandong, Fujian, Southwest, Guangdong and other major markets are still quoted at 10,800-10,900 yuan / ton, Jiangsu and Zhejiang market quoted at 10,900-11,000 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price is 10,900 yuan / ton. The market price of the products of Jiangsu Shenghong, Jiangsu Yingxiang, Zhejiang Tongkun and other manufacturers is maintained at 1 800-10 900 yuan / ton. Jiangsu's three lane road, Zhejiang Zhuo Cheng and a few other manufacturers, the market price of products is slightly higher, which is 11000 yuan / ton. As expected, the polyester staple market is still calm. The direct spinning staple market is stable at 11800 yuan / ton. The price quoted by major manufacturers and the transaction price have not changed, such as Liaoyang Petrochemical, Jiangyin Sanfang Lane polyester short ex-factory self-raised price of 11 700 yuan / ton, Yizheng chemical fiber polyester short national market to the factory transaction price in 11 800 - 11 900 yuan / ton. Downstream polyester yarn market is still stable, 21S yarn 13100 yuan / ton, 32S yarn 14000 yuan / ton, there is a slight increase. Will polyester raw materials rebound again before the Spring Festival? Now try to put forward three points of view for reference: First, according to the manufacturer's reflection, now slice and fiber manufacturer's stock of raw materials and finished products is not too much, on average about 10 days. According to past practice, before the year, manufacturers would buy some raw materials to store up the warehouse. Therefore, in the next 10-15 days, there may be volume trading. Secondly, MEG traders now have a large amount of goods in hand, because of the long-term market bullish, big businessmen are not anxious to cash. Third, the industry generally believes that the price of PX contract will be substantially higher than in January, if it becomes a fact, then the PTA, PX market will certainly rise again, slicing and fiber manufacturers will again face high cost pressure.