Will the raw materials market rebound again before the Spring Festival?

　　Driven by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and an impending cold snap hitting the northeastern United States, New York–traded crude oil futures closed up $1.67 per barrel on January 13, at $48 per barrel. Meanwhile, London Brent crude also broke above $45 per barrel, reaching its highest level since December last year. Shell recently declared force majeure; despite repeated assurances from company executives regarding MEG supply, polyester‑raw‑material traders seized on this as a pretext for price speculation. Coupled with strong support from crude oil prices, the polyester raw‑material market halted its downward slide as of January 14. Overall, the raw‑material market remained relatively stable, with MEG posting a modest rebound of 50–100 yuan per ton; in Zhejiang, imported bulk MEG was typically transacted at around 9,950 yuan per ton. PTA prices stayed unchanged, with domestic PTA quoted at 8,400–8,500 yuan per ton for cash‑on‑delivery, while imported PTA continued to trade at 8,300–8,400 yuan per ton. The PX market remains cautious, awaiting February contract pricing. Additionally, recent additions of roughly 1.5 million tons per year in global production capacity—due to new capacity coming online and some units resuming operations—have further boosted supply. Keeping pace with upstream raw‑material trends, the polyester chip market remained steady on January 17. Although semi‑gloss filament chips saw a tentative, slight price cut in spot‑cash transactions (from 10,800–10,900 yuan per ton on January 16 to 10,800–10,850 yuan per ton on January 17), the impact was minimal, and overall market conditions remained stable. Domestic semi‑gloss filament‑grade chips continued to be quoted at 10,800–10,900 yuan per ton across major markets such as Shandong, Fujian, Southwest China, and Guangdong, while Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets priced them at 10,900–11,000 yuan per ton, with actual transaction prices averaging around 10,900 yuan per ton. Manufacturers including Jiangsu Shenghong, Jiangsu Yingxiang, and Zhejiang Tongkun maintained product prices at 10,800–10,900 yuan per ton, while a few producers like Jiangsu Sanfangxiang and Zhejiang Zhuocheng commanded slightly higher prices, at 11,000 yuan per ton. As expected, the polyester staple fiber market remained calm. Direct‑spun staple fiber prices held steady at approximately 11,800 yuan per ton. Major manufacturers’ listed and actual transaction prices showed no significant changes: Liaoyang Petrochemical and Jiangyin Sanfangxiang quoted ex‑factory self‑pickup prices of 11,700 yuan per ton, while Yizheng Chemical’s staple fiber sold nationwide at 11,800–11,900 yuan per ton. Downstream polyester yarn markets also stayed stable, with 21S yarn at 13,100 yuan per ton and 32S yarn at 14,000 yuan per ton—both showing minor increases. Will polyester raw materials stage another pre‑Spring Festival rally? Here are three observations for consideration: First, manufacturers report that both chip and fiber producers currently hold only modest inventories of raw materials and finished goods—roughly 10 days’ worth on average. Historically, companies typically stock up ahead of the Lunar New Year to replenish warehouses. Thus, over the next 10–15 days, a surge in trading activity could emerge. Second, many MEG traders now hold substantial inventories, and, buoyed by optimism about long-term price trends, major players are reluctant to liquidate their positions quickly. Third, industry consensus suggests that PX contract prices will rise sharply compared to January levels; if this materializes, PTA and PX markets are likely to climb again, placing renewed cost pressures on chip and fiber producers.